AMOC Watch
Daily AI-powered monitoring of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — the ocean's most critical climate regulator. Multi-source fusion across Copernicus, RAPID Array, Argo floats, and NASA satellite data.
42/100
AMOC Health Score
−2 pts this month
15.2 Sv
RAPID Transport
−1.8 Sv vs 17.0 Sv mean
0.71
CSD Indicator
threshold 0.75 (Boers 2021)
0.91
Model R² vs RAPID
target ≥0.85 exceeded
AMOC Health Score — 12-month trend (May 2025 – Apr 2026)
Composite score derived from RAPID transport, CSD indicator, salinity gradient, freshwater flux, and SST anomaly.
Salinity Gradient Index
0.34
−0.14 over 12 months
Freshwater dilution signal
Freshwater Flux
142 Gt yr⁻¹
+34 Gt yr⁻¹ over 12 months
Greenland melt proxy
CSD Tipping Indicator
0.71
+0.17 · threshold 0.75
Critical slowing down
Phytoplankton Anomaly
−0.18
−0.21 anomaly
Biological carbon pump proxy
Data pipeline status — all sources ingested
AI Weekly Narrative
Week of 28 Apr 2026 · Generated by Claude 3.5 Sonnet via AWS Bedrock
Current state: AMOC transport has continued its multi-year decline, recording a monthly mean of 15.2 Sv at the RAPID 26.5°N monitoring array — 0.8 Sv below last month and approximately 1.8 Sv below the 2004–2024 historical mean of 17.0 Sv. The AMOC Health Score has declined two points this month to 42/100, marking the lowest value in the operational window.
Key signals: The salinity gradient between the subtropical and subpolar gyres has declined to a 14-year low (index 0.34), driven by continued freshwater injection from Greenland basal melt (flux +14% year-on-year in April). NSIDC surface mass balance data shows SE Greenland drainage basins shedding mass at an accelerated rate. Sea surface temperature in the NE Atlantic stands +1.4°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, the second-highest April anomaly on record.
Outlook: The AI-modelled Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicator now stands at 0.71 — approaching the 0.75 threshold above which Boers (2021) identifies statistically significant tipping point proximity. Current conditions are assessed at WARNING tier. The next RAPID annual data release (Q3 2026) will provide ground truth for model recalibration.
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