Our Technology
Open government data, multi-factor analysis, and transparent methodology — built for trust.
Data Pipeline
Our prediction engine ingests data from authoritative UK government sources, analyses it against soil properties and drainage characteristics, and outputs risk-scored predictions with confidence intervals.
River Gauges
Weather + Soil
Risk Analysis
Alert Delivery
UK Environment Agency
Real-time water level readings from river gauge stations across England, available within 15-minute intervals under Open Government Licence v3.0.
Open-Meteo Weather API
Weather data and soil moisture analysis at multiple depths (0-7cm surface, 7-28cm subsurface), providing ground saturation conditions that affect flood risk.
Prediction Model
Risk Classification
Water levels are classified against station-specific thresholds. Soil moisture data adjusts the predicted rise rate — saturated soil means more surface runoff and faster water level increases.
Confidence Scoring
Every prediction comes with a confidence score calculated from multiple factors including risk level, data completeness, and soil moisture availability. This helps decision-makers understand the reliability of each forecast.
Multi-factor confidence calculation
Higher scores with complete environmental data
Confidence range: 85–99%
Measured Performance
Every prediction is automatically reconciled against Environment Agency actual readings 24 hours post-prediction. Accuracy figures shown here are measured — not estimated.
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Predictions Logged
since launch
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Reconciled Against Actuals
Environment Agency readings
Measuring
Risk Classification Accuracy
0 of 50 needed
Performance data updates every 5 minutes. Accuracy displayed once 50+ reconciled predictions are available to ensure statistical validity.
R&D Methodology
Aithera Labs is conducting systematic investigation to resolve genuine scientific and technological uncertainties in multi-factor flood prediction. The following research questions are actively being investigated using reconciled prediction data.
Soil moisture lag-time
Does T-6h or T-12h soil moisture reading improve 24-hour river level prediction vs current-time data? Optimal lag window unknown prior to empirical testing.
Threshold calibration
Can statistical analysis of historical EA readings identify flood stage thresholds that measurably reduce false positive alert rates vs manually set values?
Continuous soil moisture functions
Does a continuous function of moisture percentage produce lower MAE than the current three-class stepped model? Requires A/B testing against reconciled actuals.
Multi-station spatial correlation
Does an upstream station reading predict downstream risk with a measurable time lag? Spatial propagation characteristics require data-driven investigation.
This programme constitutes qualifying R&D activity under HMRC's definition (CIRD81900) — systematic investigation to resolve scientific and technological uncertainty with outcomes not knowable in advance. A full evidence trail (hypotheses, methods, and measured outcomes) is maintained. Investor information →
Data Integrity
Open Government Data
All river monitoring data is sourced from the UK Environment Agency under Open Government Licence v3.0. Fully transparent and verifiable.
No Personal Data
Our prediction system processes environmental data only. No personal information is collected, stored, or shared during flood risk analysis.
UK GDPR Compliant
The platform is designed with privacy by default. Contact form data is processed in accordance with UK GDPR and never shared with third parties.
Security
Encrypted Access
Dashboard access is protected by encrypted session management with automatic expiry. All connections are secured via HTTPS.
Brute Force Protection
Automated rate limiting prevents unauthorised access attempts, protecting the platform against credential attacks.
Cloud-Native Architecture
Deployed on enterprise-grade cloud infrastructure with automatic scaling, redundancy, and continuous monitoring.
Want to Learn More?
Get in touch to discuss how our technology can support your flood risk management.
Contact Us