Model Transparency

Every prediction Aithera Labs makes is automatically checked against Environment Agency actual readings 24 hours later. These are the live results.

Live Performance Metrics

Predictions logged

—

live EA readings only

Reconciled

—

checked against actual readings

Risk accuracy

—

withheld until ≥50 reconciled predictions (0 so far)

Accuracy is withheld until at least 50 predictions have been reconciled to avoid misleading statistics from a small sample. The model went live recently and this number will update automatically.

How Reconciliation Works

Step 1

Prediction logged

Each time the prediction API runs, the current water level, predicted level, risk tier (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW), and confidence score are written to the database.

Step 2

Actual reading fetched

A cron job runs hourly. For every unreconciled prediction that is more than 24 hours old, the actual water level is fetched from the Environment Agency API for the same station.

Step 3

Accuracy computed

The predicted risk tier is compared to the risk tier the actual reading would have produced using the same thresholds. Accuracy is the percentage of correct classifications.

Data Sources & Methodology

River level data

Real-time water level readings from Environment Agency telemetry stations via the EA Flood Monitoring API (environment.data.gov.uk). Data refreshes every 15 minutes. Licence: Open Government Licence v3.0.

Soil moisture & rainfall forecast

Soil moisture (0–7 cm, 7–28 cm depth) and 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast from Open-Meteo (open-meteo.com). Free and open; no API key required. Licence: Creative Commons CC BY 4.0.

Property flood exposure

Residential and commercial property counts in Flood Zone 3 (>1% annual exceedance probability) and Zone 2 (0.1–1% AEP) from the EA National Flood Risk Assessment 2020.

Damage estimation

Depth-damage functions from the Multi-Coloured Manual (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2019) — the standard UK methodology for flood damage assessment. A ±25% uncertainty band is applied to all estimates. These are indicative figures; they are not a substitute for a site-specific flood risk assessment.

Prediction model

Risk tier (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW) is derived from the predicted water level 24 hours ahead, adjusted by real-time soil moisture contribution. Confidence scores reflect data completeness — predictions with live soil data receive a +5% confidence uplift.

Known Limitations

  • Three rivers monitored (Thames at Kingston, Severn at Buildwas, Ouse at Skelton). Not representative of all UK river systems.
  • Property counts are static estimates from NFRA 2020 and do not update in real time.
  • Damage estimates assume average property types. Individual property vulnerability is not modelled.
  • The model has been live for a short time; accuracy figures will be more statistically reliable as the dataset grows.
  • No topographic flood routing is performed. Flood extent is approximated from depth-damage exposure fractions.